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Commercial Forecasting & Analytics

Getting your data
to get to the point.

We give growing businesses the same commercial insight that large companies rely on, from D2C brands to wholesalers and distributors. Live dashboards, demand forecasting and clear analytics, without the cost of an in-house analyst.

Currently accepting new clients · Q3 2026
Recent Results
£118k
cash released from dead stock for an electronics wholesaler
55%
less waste for a fresh-goods wholesaler, service level held
6.3x
stock turns for a builders’ merchant, up from 4.1x
What We Do

The numbers your
business actually needs

We don't sell software. We build tailored commercial models, dashboards and forecasts and hand you a finished product you can actually use.

01
Live Dashboards

One interactive page showing your entire business performance. Revenue, margins, stock, channels, all in one place. Built in Excel and Power BI, tailored to your business.

02
Demand Forecasting

Statistical forecasting layered with seasonality, trends and external signals. Know what is coming 6 to 8 weeks ahead so you can plan stock, staffing and cash with confidence.

03
Unit Economics

Understand exactly what each customer, product or group costs you and generates for you. The model that tells you whether your business actually works, before you scale it.

04
Commercial Analysis

Deep-dive analysis into margins, channel performance, pricing and competitor benchmarking. Clear insights and recommendations, not just numbers on a page.

05
Next-Generation Analytics

Harness the power of advanced AI and expert analysis. Our technology rapidly identifies meaningful patterns and opportunities within your data, while experienced analysts review every finding to ensure accuracy, context, and actionable recommendations. The result is faster insights without compromising quality.

Who This Is For

Built for founders
who are serious about growth

We work with early-stage and scaling businesses across any sector, and increasingly with stock-holding wholesalers and distributors. If you have data and need clarity, we can help.

📦
Wholesalers & Distributors

Stock-holding wholesalers and distributors carrying high SKU counts and seasonal, perishable or high-value inventory. See what to buy, what to clear and where cash is tied up, weeks ahead. This is fast becoming the heart of what we do.

🛍️
D2C & Retail Brands

From independent retailers to growing D2C brands. Know which products, channels and customers are actually driving profit.

🏦
Fintech & Startups

Unit economics, pricing models and financial dashboards for founders raising investment or planning their first year of revenue.

🍽️
Hospitality & F&B

Multi-site operators and FMCG businesses. Demand forecasting, site performance and margin visibility across your whole operation.

How It Works

Simple process.
Fast results.

From first call to finished dashboard, typically two to three weeks.

01
Discovery Call

A free 15-minute call to understand your business, your data, and what you need clarity on.

02
Data & Brief

You share your data and we agree the scope: what we are building, the assumptions, and what the output looks like.

03
Build & Iterate

We build your dashboard or model and share drafts for feedback. You shape it until it is exactly what you need.

04
Handover & Support

You receive the finished output, fully interactive and ready to use. Ongoing refresh available monthly.

Our Work

Real problems.
Real outputs.

Every engagement is bespoke. Here is how we turn messy stock and sales data into weekly decisions, across three very different wholesale operations.

Electronics · Wholesale & Distribution
Electronics Wholesaler
High-value tech distribution · Greater London
Client withheld under NDA
The Problem

Handsets, audio and wearables lose value fast. Buying ran on supplier relationships and instinct, so cash kept getting locked into lines that were already depreciating. Over £180k of stock had been sitting past 90 days with no clear view of what to clear or when the next demand spike would land.

How We Helped

We built a SKU-level demand forecast and an inventory-at-risk dashboard: stock aged into buckets, margin tracked by category, and reorder points that factor in price erosion. One live page tells the buyer what to reorder, what to clear and how much cash is exposed.

Why It Works

In tech, timing is the whole game. Pairing a forward forecast with ageing turns a gut-feel purchase into a weekly buy list, and flags slow stock while it still holds value instead of after it has crashed.

Inventory Command Live
Stock Value
£1.42M
↓ 9% vs Q1
Dead Stock
£62k
↓ from £180k
Gross Margin
14.8%
↑ 2.4 pts
Ageing Stock Value (£k) 6-wk fcst acc 87%
0-30d
31-60d
61-90d
90d+
Healthy Dead stock · clear
£118k
working capital released from slow stock in the first quarter
-66%
dead stock over 90 days, from £180k down to £62k
87%
6-week forecast accuracy on core fast-moving lines
Client identity withheld under NDA. Figures anonymised for confidentiality.
Fresh & Perishable · Wholesale
Perishable Goods Wholesaler
Fresh produce supply to trade · London
Client withheld under NDA
The Problem

Short shelf life punishes both directions. To avoid letting trade customers down, they over-ordered, then wrote off what did not sell. Roughly 9% of stock was going in the bin each week, with no daily, line-by-line view of what tomorrow actually needed.

How We Helped

We built a daily SKU-level demand forecast layered with day-of-week and weather signals, plus a waste and order-recommendation dashboard that balances service level against spoilage and hands the buyer a suggested order quantity each morning.

Why It Works

Perishables have a profit-maximising order quantity, not just a safe one. A tuned daily forecast finds the point where you protect the customer and stop paying to throw stock away, and it updates as patterns shift.

Freshness Tracker Live
Waste Rate
4.1%
↓ from 9.2%
Service Level
98.2%
↑ held
Fcst Accuracy
91%
↑ SKU / day
Waste Rate by Week (%) rolling 9 wks
W1
W3
W5
W7
W9
Above target On target
£48k
annual spoilage saving from tighter daily ordering
-55%
weekly waste, cut from 9.2% down to 4.1% of stock
98%
service level to trade customers held through the change
Client identity withheld under NDA. Figures anonymised for confidentiality.
Building Materials · Distribution
Builders’ Merchant
Construction materials distribution · South East
Client withheld under NDA
The Problem

Demand swings hard with weather and project cycles. Cash sat in slow, heavy stock like timber and aggregates through winter, then peak lines ran out in summer. Thousands of long-tail SKUs went unreviewed, quietly tying up working capital with stock turning just 4.1 times a year.

How We Helped

We built a seasonal demand forecast by product family, a working-capital dashboard tracking stock turns and cash tied up, and a slow-mover rationalisation list so the team could see exactly which long-tail lines to cut and which to pre-buy before the season.

Why It Works

Matching stock to the season frees cash when trade is quiet and protects sales when it peaks. Reviewing the long tail stops money leaking into lines that turn once a year and puts it behind the ones that actually move.

Demand & Capital Live
Stock Turns
6.3x
↑ from 4.1x
Cash Released
£95k
↑ YTD
Fcst Accuracy
84%
↑ by family
Seasonal Demand Index 100 = avg
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Slow Movers Flagged · Cash Tied Up
Timber (long tail)£31k
Fixings£19k
Landscaping£12k
+54%
stock turns, up from 4.1x to 6.3x a year
£95k
working capital released and put behind faster lines
-38%
peak-season stockouts on core trade lines
Client identity withheld under NDA. Figures anonymised for confidentiality.
Testimonials

What our clients say

Big shoutout to Clarity in Commerce for helping us build out our internal dashboard. With the truth of how the business model actually works. If you're a founder and you haven't properly done your unit economics yet, reach out to Khalid. Superfast turnaround, I couldn't recommend a better company.

S
Shahmad Haif
Founder & CEO · Hagbad

Clarity in Commerce has transformed how we manage inventory. We went from making buying decisions on gut feel to having a clear forecast that tells us exactly what to stock and when. It's been a game-changer for our business.

W
Waleed
Founder · Electronix
Trusted by
Pricing

Transparent pricing.
No surprises.

All engagements include a free 15-minute discovery call. No commitment until you have seen the plan.

One-Off Build
£1,999
one-time fee

A complete bespoke dashboard, forecast and commercial model. Delivered in 2 to 3 weeks.

Full discovery and data review
Bespoke dashboard, forecast and commercial model
Two rounds of revisions
Full handover and walkthrough
Get Started
On-Demand
£120
per hour

Ad-hoc analysis, model reviews or one-off deep dives beyond your existing engagement.

Flexible, no commitment
Quick turnaround
Suitable for specific questions
Invoice on completion
Get Started
About

Hi, I'm Khalid.

After nearly a decade working in data consulting and forecasting for large organisations, I saw first-hand how powerful the right insight can be, transforming planning, decision-making, and growth.

I started Clarity in Commerce to give growing businesses access to the same forecasting advantage that multinationals rely on every day, but at a price point that makes sense for small and medium-sized businesses.

No jargon. No complexity. Just clear, actionable insights and forecasts that help you plan confidently, make smarter decisions, and grow with certainty.

Getting your data to get to the point.

View Khalid on LinkedIn →
BT GROUP
COSTAR
STR
MERCK GROUP
How we handle your data

An NDA is available on request before any data is shared. Client data is stored securely in the UK and deleted within 30 days of project completion. We do not share data with third parties. Clarity Forecasting Limited is GDPR compliant and registered with the ICO.

Get Started

Ready to get clarity
on your numbers?

Book a free 15-minute call or send us a message. No commitment, no jargon, just a straight conversation about what you need.

We work with founders and growing businesses across the UK, including a growing number of wholesalers and distributors. If you have data and need clarity on what it is telling you, we would love to hear from you.

Based in London, UK
Book a Free 15-Min Call →